The Trade That Can Be A Mutual Disaster: Josh Hader to the Padres

Interesting trades. That what makes baseball so much fun.

And stressful.

This trade when first heard was so exciting. Josh Hader from Milwaukee to San Diego in exchange for Taylor Rogers, Dinelson Lamet, Estuery Ruiz, and Robert Gasser.

Let’s start with San Diego. Over the weekend, Taylor Rodgers lost the closer role over the weekend after a rough last few months.

Until May 31: 22 IP, 11 H, 1.64 ERA, 6 BB, 26 K … but a 2.58 FIP

June 1 Onward: 19.1 IP, 26 H, 7.45 ERA, 3 BB, 22 K … but a 2.09 FIP

Weird, right? Well, sort of. He’s good at getting ground balls, but less than he was in Minnesota. He’s good at getting whiffs (82nd percentile). But this season, we have seen his sinker gain 87 points in xWOBA (.291 to .378), and losing the ground ball ability of it as the catalyst (-5 to 1). Whiffs are up, but arguably, that’s not who he is. He’s going to live and die by contact, and this may be a tale of 2 different ends for what he is as an arm.

We have seen the sinker flatten out a little bit based on the spin direction moving upward from 10:15 to 10:30 on spin based and 9:30 to 9:45 on observed. Likely a thing the Padres intended on doing, but being acquired the day before Opening Day, it is hard to say what they Padres really did development wise with him.

They did not like what they saw, and immediately went on the search for a new closer, and Josh Hader became the answer. A flamethrowing unicorn whiff machine, who will also give up his hard contact too. This is not the same Hader we have seen either. K’s are up like they always are, xWOBA is up and xWOBAcon is super high, a career worst .450 this season. Leading to a career high 4.24 ERA , primarily caused by a July that had an ERA over 12 and giving up 5 home runs.

Why is that? Similar to Rogers, he is a victim of the hard contact. 17.4% barrell rate is bottom in baseball, and he is typically succumb to that, but he was coming off a 2021 where the future looked better. Location issues with the fastball has been a problem and if it’s not a whiff, it’s a scary result.

So, we all know Hader is better than Rogers as the percentiles I have attached, but when it comes down to it, Hader’s next 3 months will define the short term of the trade. With a really bad July, the Padres will have to hope the 1st percentile barrels do not hurt him. The Padres bullpen is still below average with Hader, a key to games will be production of setup men like Luis Garcia, Tim Hill, and Adrian Morejon.

Now why is Milwaukee doing this? They are 1st place in the NL Central. They are trading a top-3 closer in baseball? Why?

David Stearns says it best, but also scares me when it comes to his motives. Biting the most out of an apple. But does that mean trading one of your best assets in the middle of the season during a pennant race? The Rays do this really well, mentioning the Padres, we can reference the Blake Snell trade, where the Rays sent over Snell in a deal just after the World Series appearance in 2020. Now has the deal been successful? Not necessarily either way. But this deal was in the offseason, and the financial motives were a big deal for both sides. What kind of mindset are you giving to your fans and incoming free agents when you make these moves?

That being said, I love the return package, but I can't help but feel like this trade is a loss no matter what. Rogers is a capable reliever, and giving him a setup role with good defense behind will will do wonders for him. Robert Gasser has a starting pitcher profile and will start with the Brewers in AA, has a good four pitch repertoire highlighted by a sweeper with 17 inches of horizontal movement. Estuery Ruiz will be a capable 4A outfield/2B option who will likely peak as a platoon/pinch run option, but can contribute immediately.

Now comes Dinelson Lamet. He might be the one piece that determines the winner of this trade, and he might not pitch the rest of 2022. People will forget he was a top-5 CY in 2020, but right now he is in a spot where he cannot throw in a competitive situation. He has been dealing with elbow injuries, inconsistencies with his pitches, and just a tornado of everything that cannot be helpful for him to succeed. The Padres look like they are giving up on him, and honestly, they might be.

There might not be a better place and situation for him to get a change of scenery while also developing with the Milwaukee Brewers pitching development system. It will be super intriguing to see what he can do, granted with only 1+ years to work with it, but he can be a big time option for 2023 for the Brewers. Do the Brewers have enough time to fix him? Maybe.

Most important thing to figure out here is the motive of the deal.

The Padres is easier, they did not feel confident with Taylor Rogers anymore as the closer, and what better way to solve it than acquiring a top three closer in the major leagues at a relatively buy low value. They also cleared up two spots in the 40 man roster by dealing Lamet and Ruiz, and likely would not have tendered Lamet in the offseason anyway.

To mention, the Padres found a way to acquire Hader without giving up any of the core-5 prospects who have been linked to the possible deal for Juan Soto (Hassell, Abrams, Gore, Merrill, Wood). That is a low risk deal in itself.

The Brewers’ timing is confusing, but they know that giving up Hader while also acquiring near-equivalent MLB talent (Ruiz, Rogers) is a short term “win”, and they get the opportunity to bring Dinelson Lamet to as close to Cy Young form for a season and seemed to be willing to pay him $5M in 2023 to try it all out. Lastly, Gasser is a solid pitching prospect to add on top of it.

This is a deal the Padres will win or lose. The Brewers just need to not remember they had Hader.

Now back to the title of this article, I just called this trade a possible mutual disaster. Is that an exaggeration? Maybe, but it’s surely possible. The Padres’ bullpen with just Hader not super satisfactory, and it needs some work, there's also some work for them to acquire an impact bat, primarily in the outfield. If they are not in World Series contention during Hader’s run (1+ years), this trade will be considered a failure in the regard for its motive. The Brewers could be in contention this season since they are still winning their division, but there is definitely a feeling that there will be a point where they miss having an impact bullpen arm like Hader. Rogers and Lamat will be key to fill that void in 2022 and 2023 respectively, and the impact of Ruiz and Gasser will fill in more of a long-term condition that allows the Brewers to continue to retool and avoid any form of a rebuild like David Stearns emphasized. If they miss Hader though, it will create a narrative that stones cares more about making the playoffs and being good instead of being great.